Global smartphone shipments seen to decline 12.9% in 2026

IDC said this marks the largest drop ever due to the memory shortage crisis.

IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker for Feb 2026

Smartphone shipments to stabilize by mid-2027

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by 12.9 percent in 2026 to 1.1 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

This decline will bring the smartphone market to its lowest annual shipment volume in more than a decade. The current forecast represents a sharp decline from our November forecast amid the intensifying memory shortage crisis.

When it comes to regions, the Middle East & Africa will face the steepest drop at 20.6 percent YoY, while the world’s largest two markets, China and Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China), are expected to decline 10.5 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively.

As the crisis begins to stabilize by mid-2027, IDC forecasts a modest recovery of 2 percent that year, followed by a stronger rebound of 5.2 percent YoY in 2028.

What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry, said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices, IDC.

According to Jeronimo, the market, particularly Android manufacturers, faces a significant threat. Those at the low end of the market are likely to suffer the most as rising costs hit their margins.

For major companies like Apple and Samsung, they are better positioned to navigate this crisis.

As smaller and low-end-positioned Android vendors struggle with rising costs, Apple and Samsung could not only weather the storm but potentially expand market share as the competitive landscape tightens, Jeronimo said.

Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said the memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping long‑term TAM (Total Addressable Market), the vendor landscape, and the product mix.

We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, and low-end vendors face sharp shipment declines amid supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points, Popal said

Source: IDC