Will the Middle East conflict fuel more smartphone price hikes in PH?

If you noticed, the prices of new smartphones in the Philippines are unusually high in Q1 of 2026.

2026 has been a strange year—and not in the best way

More smartphone price hikes in 2026?

This is a global issue, not exclusive to smartphones, PCs, and others are also affected mainly due to the global shortage of memory chips (DRAM and NAND) due to the rising demand from AI data centers. 

Even brands known for delivering affordable smartphones with specs like Xiaomi are affected. For example, the REDMI Note 14 Pro+ last year starts at PHP 22,999 for the 12GB RAM/256GB variant last year. This year, the REDMI NOTE 15 Pro+'s SRP is up to PHP 25,999 for the same configuration.

The OPPO Reno14 Pro 5G (12GB/512GB) is priced from PHP 47,999 to the OPPO Reno15 Pro 5G, priced at PHP 49,990.

Even Samsung is not safe. The S25 Ultra last year starts at PHP 84,990 for the 256GB model. Now, the Galaxy S26 Ultra with the same configuration has an SRP of PHP 86,990.

This has also resulted in the return of 64GB models in the budget segment with slightly downgraded specs for the same price. Yes, it happened to the newly announced realme Note 80.

A day before the start of the war, Counterpoint Research reported that the global shortage of memory chips may bring global smartphone shipments to fall by 12% YoY or just below 1.1 billion units worldwide in 2026.

Unfortunately, further price hikes appear likely as the ongoing Middle East conflict—particularly the US/Israel vs. Iran war—continues to disrupt global logistics and drive up oil supply costs.

In fact, Philippine President Marcos Jr. already noted that fuel prices in the country are expected to rise by PHP 7.48 per liter, diesel by PHP 17.28, and kerosene by PHP 32.35.

This is based on the already higher global fuel pricing, which will naturally increase import costs, and brands may pass that extra cost to consumers.

I hope our fears prove unfounded and that brands will find creative workarounds with minimal compromises to prevent further price hikes.

In fact, IDC research's "First Look at the War in the Middle East and its Impact on IT Spending in the Region and Globally," noted that consumer spending is unlikely to withstand a major or prolonged period of price increases.

Outside of the Middle East, fragile consumer spending is unlikely to withstand a major or prolonged period of price increases, with rising energy costs potentially causing consumers to delay purchases of PCs, tablets, smartphones and other devices. With prices for these device categories already rising due to memory price shortages, this will only lead to more consumers choosing to wait before replacing their existing devices.  

2026 has been an unusually turbulent year, and like many, I'm personally hoping for the best.

Worst case, due to the rising living cost, we could hold onto our current smartphones longer if they are still working very well, or buy 2025 models that remain powerful while less affected by the so-called 2026 AI tax and possible future conflict-driven costs.

What do you guys think?